The Daily Standard
Sports Preview
After taking tough losses the week before to each go to 3-3 to start the second half of the regular season, St. Henry and New Bremen will be looking to get a rebound heading into the final three games before playoffs.
For St. Henry, the rebound is a little more important if the Redskins want to get into the postseason. The Cardinals are in the top 12 in computer points, but a couple wins would be needed to lock up a good spot.
Last year the teams met in St. Henry for Week Eight, with the Redskins winning 20-0. The teams then returned for the first round of the playoffs at the Wally Post Athletic Complex, this time St. Henry holding on for a 14-7 win en route to a Division VII state title.
Round three in nearly a year will be again in St. Henry, with the highlight being a head-to-head matchup between three of the top rushers in the Midwest Athletic Conference.
Jacob Kelly leads New Bremen with 10 rushing touchdowns this season.
New Bremen quarterback Gavin Dicke leads the Cardinals with 512 yards on the ground and adds nine touchdowns. Running back Jacob Kelly is close behind with 498 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns in coach Chris Schmidt's spread Wing-T set. The Cardinals average 194.5 yards per game via the ground.
St. Henry counters with Drew Langenkamp, who enters rushing for 531 yards with 11 running TDs to go with two receiving touchdowns and a kick return score.
St. Henry's Drew Langenkamp (with ball) has been key to the Redskins' offense with his running and receiving.
The teams divide with the passing game. Dicke has thrown for 558 yards with five touchdowns to one interception with a 53.6% completion rate. St. Henry quarterback Landon Schwartz has thrown for 1,386 yards this season, completing 60.98% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to six interceptions.
Tate Boeckman has been the go-to receiver for the Redskins, tallying 25 receptions for 463 yards and three scores. Will Gerlach (262 yards, two touchdowns), Austin Zimmerman (239 yards, three touchdowns) and Langenkamp (231 yards, two TDs) are also threats to catch the ball.
Both teams share the wealth on defense. St. Henry has five players with 30 or more tackles with New Bremen featuring five players with 20-plus tackles.
For St. Henry, Boeckman has three interceptions on defense with Drew Buschur and Noah Horstman each recording three sacks.
Ryan Leichliter leads New Bremen with three sacks.
There are 100 games that affect a team's computer ranking each season. The results of a team's 10 regular season games determine the first level points they will accumulate. For each game that a team wins, their victim plays nine other games which can contribute to their second level points.
After six weeks of the season, only 36% of those games have been calculated into the computer point average. In theory, that means almost 2/3 of available computer points are still out there to be harvested.
In reality, we know that is not quite true. If a team loses a game, the rest of their opponents' games no longer matter. Teams that have won many games will likely win more, and those who have lost several games will likely be defeated again. Therefore, we are able to predict with some confidence a few teams that will make the playoffs, some that will not, and some who will be interesting to watch the rest of the season.
Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50 projects Celina, Ottawa-Glandorf and Wapakoneta to already be playoff bound from the Western Buckeye League, as are Marion Local, Minster and New Bremen from the Midwest Athletic Conference. The loser of the Delphos St. John's at Parkway game will be considered out of contention next week.
There were no real upsets last Friday. Elida defeating Bath and Versailles over New Bremen were both slightly surprising to the computer but were close enough to be considered toss-up games.
The WBL game to watch this week is Van Wert hosting St. Marys. The Roughriders probably need to either win this game or defeat Shawnee next Friday to reach the postseason. Van Wert is in better shape, but a win would make a home playoff game more likely for the Cougars.
The MAC has three games (Coldwater at Versailles, Minster at Anna and Marion Local hosting Fort Recovery) where an upset would be huge for the underdogs and then a game between New Bremen and St. Henry where The Cardinals are already playoff bound, but if the Redskins lose they need to defeat either Minster or Coldwater the next two weeks to stay in contention.
The computer points for the entire state, and especially the regions involving area teams can be found throughout the season at: user.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm
Celina - 1st (13.38)
Wapakoneta - 8th (6.62)
Richfield Revere - 12th (5.17)
St. Marys - 13th (4.87)
Shawnee - 14th (4.63)
Defiance - 22nd (1.43)
Celina will lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win over Elida. Celina is a big favorites this Friday as well against Bath and Defiance later in the season. Celina should end up with the No. 1 seed whether they win or lose against Ottawa-Glandorf in Week Nine.
Wapakoneta defeated Van Wert to secure their postseason invitation. The Redskins are heavily favored to win out with Friday's game against Shawnee expected to be their toughest remaining challenge. Wapakoneta should end up with the No. 5 seed with their 7-3 record, though an upset loss by Copley or Cloverleaf could result in a first-round playoff bye.
St. Marys fell below the playoff cut line after losing to Ottawa-Glandorf. The Roughriders likely need to defeat either Van Wert this Friday or Shawnee next week to make the postseason. Three more victories probably earn St. Marys a home playoff game.
Shawnee probably needs two more wins to reach the postseason. The Indians are underdogs all four games. Their hardest matchup is at Wapakoneta this Friday.
Defiance is mathematically alive but needs to win out to have a minor shot at the playoffs.
Ottawa-Glandorf - 4th (10.87)
Van Wert - 6th (6.33)
Marengo Highland - 12th (3.97)
Elida - 13th (3.15)
Kenton - 17th (1.88)
Ottawa-Glandorf is now guaranteed to play a home playoff game. The Titans need two or three more wins to earn a postseason bye and are touchdown favorites in all but their Week Nine matchup with Celina.
Van Wert is almost definitely in the playoffs with one more victory. This week is a toss-up game against St. Marys where a win almost guarantees a finish in the top eight.
Elida faces a critical game against Celina as a four-touchdown underdog. An upset and Elida has a 98% chance at the postseason. A loss and the odds drop to 10%.
Kenton needs to win three more games. The only matchup in which they are not at least a three-touchdown underdog is this Friday at Defiance.
Coldwater - 7th (8.40)
North Union - 12th (6.90)
Norwayne - 13th (5.28)
Bath - 16th (3.80)
Coldwater is on the verge of qualifying for the playoffs if they defeat Versailles, though any victory the rest of the season should get the job done. Three more wins should earn the Cavaliers a home playoff game, but their last four opponents (Versailles, Anna, St. Henry and Marion Local) are a combined 16-8.
Bath plays Ottawa-Glandorf this week and Celina next Friday. The Wildcats need to win at least one and probably both of these games.
Sherwood Fairview - 12th (5.35)
Parkway - 18th (2.65)
Parkway is out of realistic playoff contention. Winning all of their final four games could give the Panthers some kind of postseason hope.
Versailles - 8th (7.67)
Miami Valley Christian - 12th (5.52)
St. Henry - 13th (5.20)
Anna - 16th (3.27)
Versailles survived over New Bremen to become a likely playoff team. A mild upset over Coldwater should earn the Tigers a home playoff game. With a loss Versailles will need to win their final three matchups to start the playoffs at Hole Field.
St. Henry's three losses are to undefeated teams. One more loss and the Redskins' postseason odds drop to just over 50%. Still up are New Bremen, Minster and Coldwater. Winning out is needed to earn a home playoff game.
Anna probably needs to win out to make the playoffs. One loss and their odds fall to 16%. The Rockets are about three touchdown underdogs to Minster and Coldwater the next two weeks.
Wayne Trace - 12th (3.25)
Delphos St. John's - 20th (0.58)
Delphos St. John's needs to win out to have any chance.
Marion Local - 1st (10.32)
Minster - 2nd (9.73)
New Bremen - 6th (4.98)
Ridgemont - 12th (2.22)
Hardin Northern - 13th (2.10)
Fort Recovery - 15th (1.85)
Marion Local claimed the top spot and guaranteed themselves a first-round bye with their 17-7 win over St. Henry. It would probably take two losses to drop the Flyers out of the final No. 1 seed, and they are favored by over two touchdowns in every game.
Minster can pretty much lock up a first-round bye with a win as a three-touchdown favorite at Anna. The Wildcats look destined for the No. 3 seed even if they lose three of their final four games. If they win out, Minster will earn the No. 1 seed.
New Bremen suffered another tough loss, this time 16-13 at Versailles. The Cardinals are underdogs against St. Henry and Marion Local, then are favored over Fort Recovery and Parkway. A 5-5 record should slot New Bremen into the final No. 5 seed. A third win may earn the Cardinals a first-round bye.
Fort Recovery's postseason hopes took a big hit with their 29-28 loss at Anna. Just defeating Parkway next week gives the Indians a 1-in-3 shot at the playoffs. An upset over Marion Local, New Bremen or Minster should ensure another game in Week 11.
For more computer point analysis for teams across west central Ohio, listen to my weekly podcast. Search your favorite streaming platform for Bruce Monnin's computer points.
Celina continues to battle its way to victory each week, last week scoring 35 unanswered points to break a 14-all tie for the 49-14 win in Kenton to go to 6-0 and keep a share of the Western Buckeye League lead at 5-0.
This week, Celina travels to Kraft Stadium in Elida to take on another set of Bulldogs that picked up their first league win last week.
Elida defeated Bath 28-21 thanks to Caleb Elling's two touchdown runs and quarterback Jonan Snyder, who returned after sitting out the Week Five loss to Ottawa-Glandorf due injury, connecting with Jayden Siefker.
Elida is in the upper half of the WBL in scoring defense in allowing 24 points per game, but shares eighth place in the league in scoring offense at 21.7 points per game. Elida entered last week averaging just 56.4 rushing yards per game and ranked ninth in total offense at 301 yards per contest.
Celina hit the 49-point mark for the second time last week and has scored at least 28 points in five of the six games. Linebacker Adam Jacob extended his WBL lead in tackles with 74 and Celina got a interception-return touchdown for the third straight week as Charlie Fisher got a pick-six in the first half against Kenton. Quarterback Jett Warner has throw 12 touchdowns among his 46 completions this season (a touchdown for every 3.8 completions) and has yet to be picked off.
St. Marys will be looking to rebound after allowing 40-plus points for the second straight game in a 46-28 loss to WBL co-leader Ottawa-Glandorf. This week is a road trip to Van Wert.
The Roughriders hit the road for the first of two straight weeks in facing a Van Wert team that dropped its second out of the last three in a 35-13 loss at Wapakoneta.
The Cougars are 3-0 at Eggerss Stadium this season and will look to jump start league rushing leader Xavier Kelly, who had just 63 yards on the ground with no touchdowns against the Redskins. Quarterback Zach Crummey tried to counter the dry spell, throwing for 395 yards and both Cougar touchdowns. Micah Cowan had a big game at receiver, snagging 11 catches for 185 yards.
The Roughriders did rush for 242 yards against O-G last week, which was 72 yards under their season average of 316.4 coming into last week. St. Marys is minus-2 in turnover ratio (seven turnovers to five takeaways).
• Marion Local hosts Fort Recovery in the teams' third meeting in a calendar year. The Flyers won 41-7 in the regular season, then took a 35-0 win in the regional semifinals last November. Marion defeated St. Henry 17-7 last week, picking off three Landon Schwartz passes as Cam Griesdorn rushed for the Flyers' two touchdowns and Ethan Simcoe booted a 26-yard field goal.
The Indians suffered another close loss, falling to Anna 29-28 as Caine Meyer's field goal early in the fourth quarter held up the rest of the way. In Week Five, Fort Recovery lost on a last-minute score against Versailles.
• At Booster Field in Anna, Minster plays the Rockets to try and continue its Oktoberfest weekend winning streak to five games. Since 2000, the Wildcats are 14-12 on Oktoberfest weekend, with the last meeting with Anna on the weekend coming in 2013, a 41-34 win at Memorial Field.
The Wildcats shut out St. John's 38-0 last Friday night at Stadium Park in Delphos. Taylor Fancher and Ty Hein combined for 176 rushing yards and three touchdowns with Fancher adding a touchdown reception.
Anna snapped a two-game skid in beating Fort Recovery 29-28. Logan Ziegenbusch rushed for two touchdowns and threw for another as the Rockets came back from trailing 28-20 with five minutes remaining in the third quarter.
• Coldwater continues its oldest rivalry in traveling to Hole Field to face Versailles. The teams first met in 1936 in the Cavaliers (then Yellow Jackets) first contest. Versailles will look to snap a 20-game skid to the Cavaliers.
Coldwater outscored Parkway 45-7 in the first half last week and played scoreless in a running-clock second half. Karsyn Homan rushed for two touchdowns passed for two more as the Cavaliers outgained the Panthers 279-168 in total offense. The Cavalier defense is plus-5 in turnover ratio this season.
The Tigers went down to the wire against New Bremen at Hole Field, as Blake Monnin found Alex Westgerdes for a seven-yard touchdown pitch-and-catch with 31 seconds remaining for the 16-13 win. Monnin threw two touchdown passes and rushed for 114 yards in a game that was 3-0 Tigers until under two minutes remaining in the third quarter.
• In Rockford, Parkway hosts Delphos St. John's in a contest where one team will snap a five-game losing streak and pick up their first MAC win of the season.
The Blue Jays were outgained 419-160 on offense against Minster last Friday at Stadium Park. Christian Young rushed for 63 yards as St. John's suffered two turnovers and punted three times.
Parkway lost a tough 45-7 contest at Coldwater. Perry Schwieterman threw a touchdown pass to Rhen Carpenter, who leads the area with 80 tackles, to prevent the shutout.
Johnny Pohlman, WR, Coldwater
Brady Evers, DB, Fort RecoveryCelina at Elida
St. Marys at Van Wert
Ottawa-Glandorf at Bath
Kenton at Defiance
Shawnee at Wapakoneta
Ft. Recovery at Marion Local
Minster at Anna
New Bremen at St. Henry
St. John's at Parkway
Coldwater at Versailles
| WBL | Overall | |
| Celina | 5-0 | 6-0 |
| Ottawa-Glandorf | 5-0 | 6-0 |
| Van Wert | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Shawnee | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Wapakoneta | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| St. Marys | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Bath | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Elida | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Kenton | 1-4 | 1-5 |
| Defiance | 0-5 | 1-5 |
| MAC | Overall | |
| Marion Local | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| Minster | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| Coldwater | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| St. Henry | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Versailles | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Anna | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| New Bremen | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Fort Recovery | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Parkway | 0-4 | 1-5 |
| St. John's | 0-4 | 1-5 |
